How Tariffs Will Affect Lumber Pricing

Our customers have been asking about tariffs and their potential impact on current lumber pricing, so I wanted to address your concerns. I will begin by discussing the volatility in lumber pricing history over the past five years. The wood market has experienced considerable fluctuations during this period. For instance, in August 2024, the Biden administration imposed a 14% lumber tariff on Canadian products. Since the November 2024 election, however, discussions regarding tariffs have intensified significantly.

Additionally, various disasters have impacted lumber pricing trends in recent years. The most challenging period was during the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to mill closures and a substantial increase in lumber prices due to reduced timber harvesting. Adverse weather conditions have also complicated the extraction of trees, further driving up the costs of both dimensional lumber and sheathing. Examples of these natural disasters include:

• Tornadoes
• Hurricanes
• Floods
• Major wildfires

A few years ago, sourcing lumber was challenging due to a lack of available trucking. During the pandemic, finding accessible lumber became increasingly difficult. Since then, lumber prices have reverted to levels close to those before the pandemic. However, in the years following COVID-19, lumber has increasingly behaved like a commodity, with prices fluctuating almost daily. Notably, we have observed a rise in European lumber imports, which currently account for 6% of U.S. lumber demand.

In January 2025, when lumber pricing forecasts anticipated that a 25% tariff would be imposed on Canadian lumber, every request for quote (RFQ) we submitted was returned with no quotes provided. Once the tariffs were put on hold, we were able to receive pricing again, but prices have since begun to rise once more. As of March 31, lumber futures surged to $670.50 per thousand board feet, marking the highest level in over two years.

A few weeks ago, President Trump's executive order initiated a security investigation into the nation's wood supply chain vulnerabilities, like the dumping of imported lumber, timber, and derivative products into the U.S. market. The ongoing investigation may lead to increased anti-dumping tariffs on lumber from Canada later this year. This is on top of the existing 14.5% anti-dumping/-subsidy tariff on softwood lumber in place before President Trump resumed his presidency in January, as well as the 25% tariff on the country's imports regarding lumber that may be implemented.

Collectively, these measures have raised the total tariff to nearly 40% on Canada's lumber. While President Trump also signed an executive order aimed at promoting the domestic logging industry, the elevated tariffs placed on Canada — America's primary source of lumber imports — have sparked concerns among homebuilders regarding the potential rise in material costs and lumber pricing today, as well as their effect on housing affordability for Americans.

Regardless of what's ahead, we at Quality Support, LLC will continue to closely watch the tariff situation as it develops. We're committed to serving our valued clients with reliable industrial lumber services and high-quality wood shipping crates at fair market prices.